UFC 291 Best Bets & Predictions

UFC 291 is set for Saturday, July 29 from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Check out the top picks and analysis for main card matches, along with our UFC Betting Trends and UFC Odds pages as well!

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Best Bets

Pick: Dustin Poirier
Odds: -135

The title fight of the year. Well not the lightweight title, the BMF title. Although Masvidal won this belt almost four years ago, he basically lost every fight after becoming the BMF. Now, the title will be taken by one of the two baddest dudes in the sport.

These two fighters are similar in many ways. They are the same age, roughly the same height, similar reach, and overall similar style. It's also no secret that this is basically the last chance for these either of these legends to receive a title shot. Both have been interim champions, but never got their hands on the true gold. They have recently beat Chandler. They have both lost to Khabib in similar ways.

They have both lost to Olivera. These similarities prime this fight to be the fight of the year. Although people say that Justin is reckless and crazy in the octagon which leads him into trouble, I would argue that his last fight against the up and coming Fiziev proved that he can fight calculated which is going to be very hard to stop.

But, if anyone can beat a calculated Gaethje its going to be an even more calculated Dustin. Poirier is one of those fighters who seems like very few people in his division can actually beat. He is able to strike with the best, wrestling with the best, and out plan the best. This means that Justin is going to have his hands full.

This fight should be a war. It will come down to who has the better cardio and game plan bu both fighters are truly able to win. Dustin has a better chance to win the fight because he makes less mistakes and he has better cardio than Justin. This fight is going the distance and Dustin winning by decision.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira Best Bets

Pick: Jan Blachowicz
Odds: -105

This is a super interesting fight that is extremely hard to predict. The reason it's so hard is because both of these men have so many advantages in many aspects, but  are heavily disadvantaged in many ways. Jan has the advantage in weight, a natural 205 who looks big enough to fight at heavyweight if he added a few pounds.

He has Polish KO power. He is more experienced than Alex but he is also 40 years old and he has been inconsistent with his wins. On the other hand, Alex is younger. He is faster, has reach and also has that same KO power that Jan has.

He is an incredibly skilled kickboxer who his able to compete with the best, but he is also very inexperienced. He only has nine MMA fights and is moving up a weight division. Pereira is coming off of a bad KO.

The fight comes down to whether Pereira is big enough to compete with the 205 weight class. In the striking and power department he is, but in the wrestling and takedown area I'm not so sure. He had never been tested in wrestling in the 185 division but Israel, who is not known for his wrestling, was easily out grappling Alex. So one will have to assume that Jan will be able to.

Jan should win this fight.

Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green Best Bets

Pick: Tony Ferguson
Odds: +265

This pick is going to raise a few eyebrows. While I don’t believe that Tony is the same as he used to be, he is still a killer who has lost to killers. He has lost to Gaethje, Chandler, Diaz and Beneil. Those are all straight killers. Sure Bobby Green has some skills, but I don’t think that they are able to compete with Tony.

To me, he hasn’t beat anyone notable to prove himself. If the odds were different I would go with Green, but at +265 Tony is just too good of a value.

I’m going to go with Ferguson to win by submission here.

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland Best Bets

Pick: Kevin Holland
Odds: -150

This fight is going to be yet another banger on this card. The younger trash talking legend of Holland faces the older more experienced Chiesa. Michael has not fought for over a year while Holland has been nothing but busy over the past three.

This fight is going to come down to if Chiesa can secure the takedowns against Holland. While people give Kevin some criticism for not being able to wrestling, he isn't easy to takedown. He is going to have the weight and height advantage against Michael, so taking him down will be no easy task.

If this fight is on the feet, Kevin will out-strike Michael all day. If it goes to the ground, it's very possible that Chiesa will just be able to hold Kevin there. This fight is going to be back-and-forth, but I see Kevin winning by late round KO.

He will be able to defend enough takedowns and be able to land enough strikes to withstand Chiesa.

Derek Lewis vs. Marco Rogerio de Lima Best Bets

Pick: Derek Lewis
Odds: +115

It's no secret that Lewis has not looked very good lately, but he still has power unlike many others. Lima also has not had the same level of competition that Lewis has. He is less experienced and with the crowd on his side, Lewis will be able to secure the victory the only way he does - KO.