NFL Team ATS Trends Report

Need to prepare for your NFL contests that feature against the spread (ATS) picks? Look no further!

Below you will find the top spread trends and data for teams entering the 2023 season. Check out what team trends to be on the look out for when filling out your NFL spread contests with Splash Sports!

San Francisco 49ers ATS Trends

The 49ers were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2022 season, with the trade for Christian McCaffrey and the development of Brock Purdy all but solidifying a well-rounded team. San Francisco seems poised to repeat with many returning starters, and should be favored in almost every game they compete in.

That shouldn't scare off anyone, as the 49ers covered 12 of 17 games last season when playing as the favorite. They also thrived inside Levi's Stadium, covering nine of 11 home games. This is a team you should back against the spread more times than not, and seem to be very comfortable as home favorites.

When to Take

• At Home
• As Favorites

New York Giants ATS Trends

The G-Men were a huge surprise a season ago, reaching the playoffs and touting one of the best ATS records in the NFL (14-5). It never really mattered where the Giants played in 2022, covering an impressive eight of 10 road games and six of nine when playing at home. They were rarely the favorites however, something to be mindful of in 2023.

The Giants will probably be favorites more than they were a season ago, with higher expectations. Although the 14-5 ATS record is impressive, the Giants were underdogs 14 times covering 11 of those games. It's much more difficult to cover as as favorite, so be weary of the Giants as favorites but as underdogs - happy hunting!

When to Take

• As Underdogs

Dallas Cowboys ATS Trends

Jerry World has become one of the biggest attractions in sporting venues, and the Cowboys have taken full advantage of that. Teams with top defenses also thrive at home, and it was no different for Dallas in 2022. The Boys saw an impressive 6-3 ATS record in Arlington this season, with one failed cover coming in the division against the Giants. Perhaps outside of hosting the G-Men, taking Dallas to cover home games might be worth a look - especially if Micah Parsons is healthy and the defense is thriving.

When to Take

• At Home

Cincinnati Bengals ATS Trends

The Bengals were one of the best teams against the spread in 2022 with a 13-6 record. Away from Paul Brown Stadium, the Bengals covered eight of 11 games while also covering three of four games as the underdog. It's unlikely that Cincinnati sees itself in the underdog role often throughout 2023, so take advantage of the Bengals at plus-points should they find themselves as dogs.

When to Take

• On Road
• As Underdogs

Baltimore Ravens ATS Trends

Staying within the division, the Ravens trends should be taken with a grain of salt. Why? Lamar Jackson, that's why. If Jackson plays a full season the numbers probably look different, but in 2022 the Ravens thrived on the road and were terrible at home.

Baltimore covered seven of 10 road games but only covered once in eight home games. If Jackson is healthy then lean heavily on the Raven road trends but this team has much to prove in terms of covering the spread at home - regardless who is under center.

When to Take

• On Road

When to Avoid

• At Home

Detroit Lions ATS Trends

The Lions have been wonderful against the spread for two straight seasons, competing in tons of close games as underdogs more times than not. The Lions covered eight of 11 games in 2022 when playing as the underdog, while also covering seven of nine home games.

Their 12-5 ATS record in 2022 is one of the best in the NFL but expectations might be higher in 2023. Expect the Lions to be favorites more times this year along with an offense that unfortunately has no where to go but down. If they sustain the same ATS success this year as they have the last two, they will need to cover as a favorite more times than not.

When to Take

• At Home
• As Underdogs

Los Angeles Chargers ATS Trends

The Chargers were surprisingly a great team to back in 2022, but in certain situations. As underdogs, the Chargers thrive in the ATS market - covering five of six games in 2022 when playing in that role. Away from SoFi Stadium the Chargers also thrived against the spread, covering seven of 10 away from Inglewood.

This all lines up pretty well with the Chargers over recent seasons. When expectations are high they tend to falter, but when they are playing with the expectation of defeat they thrive. Backing the Chargers as road underdogs would be a smart option based off the 2022 results.

When to Take

• On Road
• As Underdogs

Chicago Bears ATS Trends

The Bears kick start our list of teams that struggled to cover the spread, as we've been dealing with teams you might want to consider backing. Now we go the other way and discuss teams to possibly avoid, which begins with da bears.

Chicago failed to cover 12 of 17 games last season and were just 5-10 ATS against the underdog. The Bears were also just 2-6 against the spread when playing on the road

When to Avoid

• On Road
• As Underdogs

Denver Broncos ATS Trends

Take the Bronco trends with a grain of salt, as they finally have an adult in the room with Sean Payton. In 2022 however, the Broncos were awful as favorites and moneymakers as underdogs. The Broncos, somehow, were favorites eight times in 2022 and only covered in that role once.

Expect the Broncos to be underdogs early in 2023 and often. They went 6-3 ATS as underdogs in 2022 and did improve their head coaching situation. Early takes for Denver as an underdog is the best play for them in 2022 but avoid them as favorites... at least to start.

When to Avoid

• As Favorites

When to Take

• As Early Season Underdogs

Las Vegas Raiders ATS Trends

The Raiders are a bit unpredictable this season, with no clear hindsight at the quarterback position. They should be avoided in general to start the season but even with Derek Carr at quarterback the Raiders only covered three of nine road games. When playing away from Allegiant Stadium, they should be avoided at all costs - regardless of the spread (which I suspect will be near double-digits on the road).

When to Avoid

• On Road

Philadelphia Eagles ATS Trends

Staying on the topic of poor road covering teams, I introduce the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are favorites almost every week, so it makes sense to see a spread trend work against them. At home, the Eagles are better covering the spread - failing to cover six of eight road games.

Their division is tough against the spread, with both Dallas and New York 6-3 at home against the spread in 2022. Road games should be avoided when backing Philly, but definitely don't touch when they are on the road within their division.

When to Avoid

• On Road

Indianapolis Colts ATS Trends

Our third team that is terrible at covering the spread on the road is the Indianapolis Colts, who has one of the murkiest quarterback situations in the league. Avoid this team at all costs, much like Vegas, but particularly away from Lucas Oil when they failed to cover six of nine on the road. Expect the Colts to fail covering on the road, especially if they plug a rookie in behind what was a terrible offensive line in 2022.

When to Avoid

• On Road

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS Trends

The Bucs are also ones to avoid when on the road, but also as underdogs, which they should be a lot this season. Their quarterback situation isn't great and their preseason odds are the worst to win an awful NFC South division. In 2022 the Bucs failed to cover six of eight games away from Raymond James Stadium but more importantly were 0-4 ATS when playing as the underdog. No covers as the underdog doesn't bode well for a team expected to be an underdog a lot in 2023.

When to Avoid

• As Underdogs
• On Road

Seattle Seahawks ATS Trends

Despite a successful 2022 season for Seattle, they weren't as great against the spread. On the road the Seahawks failed to cover six of nine games. As the season progressed, the Hawks found themselves as favorites more times than expected.

However, the Seahawks only covered the spread one time in six games when playing as favorites. They should see themselves as favorites a lot in 2023 and must improve that ATS record when playing in that role.

When to Avoid

• As Favorites
• On Road

Jacksonville Jaguars ATS Trends

Much like Seattle, Jacksonville had a successful 2022 season but was not good against the spread as a favorite. The Jags failed to cover four of five games as the favorite, a role they will be in a lot for 2023 which includes at least six divisional games. There is the potential this teams grows under Doug Peterson, but for now it's best to avoid Jacksonville as a favorite.

When to Avoid

• As Favorites

Carolina Panthers ATS Trends

It's unlikely the Panthers will be favorites a lot this season, but just incase they find themselves in that role it's best to avoid. The Panthers were 0-4 ATS when playing as favorites in 2022. They will more than likely be favorites at least twice, both games against Tampa Bay - so those would be the ones to avoid. Bryce Young could shine however, but the makeup of this team isn't built to cover many spreads as a favorite.

When to Avoid

• As Favorites